cycling: Tour de France Stage #12 Prognosis: Kittel doesn't win for once!

Cycling: Marcel Kittel (Quick-Step Floors) has won five of the eleven stages completed so far. We lean out the window ahead of the twelfth stage and predict that the German won't win. Joking aside: Tomorrow it will be the turn of the climbers and class riders again. Because it goes to the French Pyrenees! Who will win at Peyragudes?

Six mountain classifications await

Good news regarding the excitement of the Tour de France: Marcel Kittel (Quick-Step Floors) will not win tomorrow. The peloton reaches the French Pyrenees on the twelfth stage. The destination is the winter sports station in Peyragudes. The difficulty there in winter is usually to drive downhill as quickly as possible. But for the cycling pros, tomorrow is all about climbing up. In recent years, the Route du Sud, the Vuelta a Espana and the Tour de France have been guests here. David Moncoutie, Alejandro Valverde and Alexandre Geniez were the winners. Only a real mountain specialist will be able to make it into the list of winners tomorrow. A total of six climbs have to be completed on the 214,5 kilometers from Pau to Peyragudes.

How much lead do the escapees have to Port de Balès?

The 94 kilometer mark is important for Marcel Kittel and all other sprinters. That is where the intermediate sprint of the day takes place. All fast-paced men in the peloton should actually make it there. However, the group of the day should already be standing. And this could be a bit bigger again, because the stage is ideal for a successful breakaway attempt. The summit of the Port de Balès is not crossed until 30,5 kilometers before the finish. Only then could the first class riders dare to move forward. Before that, the escapees have the best chance of extending their lead. Because the Côte de Capvern (7,7 km at 3,1%), the Col des Ares (7,4 km at 4,6%) and the Col de Menté (6,9 km at 8,1%) are likely to queuing early.

Will Alberto Contador try an early attack?

30,5 kilometers before the finish, the Port de Balès (11,7 km at 7,7%) is crossed. It belongs to the highest category and is therefore also interesting for the mountain classification. However, the first attacks from classification drivers can also be expected here. After that it's just uphill and downhill. The famous Col de Peyresourde (9,7 km at 7,8%) follows five kilometers before the finish, before the final climb to the destination of Peyragudes (2,4 km at 8,4%) goes up. In addition to the climbing skills, the downhill qualities are also in demand. If Alberto Contador (Trek-Segafredo) is feeling particularly good tomorrow, he could be one of those to launch an early attack with the help of a Realais station. The Spaniard is known for timely attacks and is now so far behind in the overall standings that Sky would probably let him do it.

Will Pierre Rolland ride on the mountain jersey and stage win tomorrow?

Gone are the days when Pierre Rolland (Cannondale-Drapac) eyed the general classification at the Tour de France. The Frenchman's qualities in the time trial are too bad. In the mountains, however, he is one of the strongest professionals. He showed this last with his Stage win at the Giro d'Italia. Tomorrow we expect him in the leading group to collect points for the mountain classification and to represent a possible relay station for Rigoberto Uran. At the same time, however, we expect a large lead from a breakaway group with many men. In the end, Rolland should have good cards to win the stage.

Our tip: Guillaume Martin gives his small team a huge victory

Other contenders for stage win tomorrow include Thibaut Pinot (FDJ), Esteban Chaves (Orica-Scott), Gianluca Brambilla (Quick-Step Floors), Darwin Atapuma (UAE), Alessandro De Marchi (BMC) and Javier Moreno (Bahrain Merida). If Contador's teammates Bauke Mollema and Jarlinson Pantano get a free ride, they too could go in a group. Warren Barguil (Sunweb) and Brice Feillu (Fortuneo-Oscaro) may also try. However, our tip is Guillaume Martin (Wanty-Groupe Gobert). The only 24-year-old Frenchman is in 22nd place. His gap is just big enough that he would be allowed to drive. For his small team it is probably the best chance of a stage win. If he dares to join the escape group, he could actually pull off a huge surprise tomorrow!

Who will lose feathers in the fight for overall victory?

In addition to winning the stage, the overall ranking of the Tour de France is also at stake tomorrow. Chris Froome (Sky) is a very narrow lead ahead of Fabio Aru (Astana), Romain Bardet (Ag2r) and Rigoberto Uran (Cannondale-Drapac). The very short and crisp final climb should be mainly due to Aru and Uran, as they are considered a bit more explosive. It is quite possible that one of the two will secure his second stage win in the uphill sprint. It is clear that the Col de Peyresourde will bring a preliminary decision both uphill and downhill. Bardet attacked in a descent a few days ago. We do not expect large gaps between these four. Froome should be able to defend his yellow jersey, but behind him every second counts for the podium. We can be particularly excited about Nairo Quintana (Movistar) and Daniel Martin (Quick-Step Floors). They have to come back from a deficit and should therefore attack on the penultimate climb.

Chris Froome wore the yellow jersey for the 50th time today. Can he defend it again tomorrow?

Tour de France preview: Those were the Velomotion predictions

The current overall ranking of the 2017 Tour de France after 11 of 21 stages