Spectrum, e-bike: A study by Bosch E-Bike Systems sees great potential for even more e-bikes on the roads. The expectations do not seem exaggerated, emphasizes ZEG board member Georg Honkomp - the increase could actually only be greater if prices fall.
A study by the drive manufacturer Bosch E-Bike Systems made the industry sit up and take notice: Could every second new bike be an e-bike in ten years? This idea is not unrealistic: If, like the Zweirad Industrie Verband eV (ZIV), one forecasts sales of 2017 e-bikes for 680.000 and, based on the experience of previous years, expects annual growth of 12%, by 2027 there could be around 2,1 million electric bikes roll out of the shops - about half of the 4 million bicycles that are sold on average per year in Germany.
And that could even be a cautious calculation, according to ZEG board member Georg Honkomp: "If you assume that the traffic infrastructure will improve on the one hand and the situation for car traffic on the other hand worsen, the attractiveness of electric bikes should increase further." That means: also higher rates of increase are not unrealistic.
Study by Bosch E-Bike Systems: 50% consider e-bikes to be a good alternative to cars
For the study, Bosch E-Bike Systems surveyed 5.421 people, 10% of whom already owned an e-bike; 16% wanted to make a purchase decision within a year. Another 29% are aiming for an electric bike “within the next few years”.
An interesting result of the survey relates to user behavior: according to the study, every third prospect emphasizes the role of pedelecs for commuting; more than half consider the e-bike to be an alternative to the car. "Electric bikes are no longer just a leisure activity," comments ZEG boss Honkomp.
The Bosch study also brought to light what cyclists want from traffic policy. More cycle paths, separation of cycle and pedestrian traffic, safe parking facilities - these demands indicate what would have to change if pedelec use increased in order to do justice to the higher speed and value of e-bikes.
Incidentally, the latter has not fallen over the years – unlike what experts predicted eight to ten years ago. Rather, it seems that e-bikes are becoming more and more expensive - trends such as system integration and networking mentioned by Bosch E-Bike Systems are demanding their price, and battery technology is also getting better, but not cheaper. Too bad, because if e-bikes became cheaper, the 50 percent target could perhaps be reached earlier than 2027.
