Cycling: Who will win the 105th edition of the Tour of France? It almost seems as if the number of Tour de France favorites has never been so great. The main reason: Many of them already have the Giro d'Italia in their legs. A walk-through of a driver seems impossible. This is good for the fans and for cycling as a whole. We fished out our six top favorites from the wide pool of yellow contenders. We assume that defending champion Chris Froome (Sky) will be at the start on July 7th.
Chris Froome: Can the unloved Brit do the impossible?
The last three Grand Tour victories have all gone to Chris Froome (Sky). He has won four of the last five editions of the Tour de France. The Briton is regarded as the best class driver of his generation. But success makes people unpopular, especially in France. In the case of Chris Froome, the lack of sympathy seems not only to be due to his unbeatability. Many fans don't like him because he doesn't sit very aesthetically on his bike, because he always stares at his bike computer and only rides according to the given wattage. At the end of last year he gambled away his last sympathies in cycling: Chris Froome gave a test with an abnormal salbutamol value during a doping control at the Vuelta a Espana. But he keeps going, he keeps winning and he keeps making himself unpopular. If you call the Tour de France favorites, we can't get past them - whether we like it or not. Only on Wednesday will we finally know whether Chris Froome, despite the Starting ban of the ASO tackle the Tour de France. However, since he is today acquitted by the UCI was, an exclusion should be off the table anyway.
Team: Sky is considered to be the strongest squad in the field of drivers.
Experience: Great, because those who come to the Tour de France with four overall victories have already experienced a lot.
Form/Fitness: Doubtful as he has the Giro d'Italia in his legs.
Consisty: Whenever Chris Froome has had to be in shape, he has not disappointed himself or his team.
Mountain: The longer the mountain, the better it is. However, short, poisonous climbs are less his thing.
time trial: In the fight against the clock, he only has to bow to a few - for example Tom Dumoulin.
Wind/pave: Froome has long been considered a crash pilot, but you can never catch him off guard.
- Prognosis:
Even if all his statistics speak for him: The Giro/Tour double seems to be impossible these days. The 2018 Tour de France is extremely tough. We don't believe in defending the title.
Mikel Landa: From teammate to biggest opponent?
At 28, Mikel Landa is in the prime of cycling age. Since he did not get beyond the role of a helper for Chris Froome at Team Sky in recent years, he changed his jersey colors. Now the Spaniard is at the start for the Spanish team Movistar. An interesting move as he has joined Chris Froome's closest rivals. Double leadership was yesterday. Alongside Nairo Quintana and Alejandro Valverde, Mikel Landa forms a dangerous three-point man – and all three are Tour de France favourites. In 2017 he was only 2:21 behind captain Chris Froome. As a helper, Mikel Landa finished fourth overall. How strong will he be once he feels free to ride and has the support of a strong Movistar squad?
Team: In the mountains, Movistar is no weaker than Sky.
Experience: Third at the Giro, fourth at the Tour. However, experience as a leader is limited.
Form/Fitness: Weak, because he has hardly shown anything in 2018 so far. However, this could also speak for a good form structure.
Consisty: So far, Landa has rarely been allowed to drive on her own account. He now has to prove his consistency.
Mountain: In 2017 he appeared to be stronger uphill than Froome. If he wins time anywhere, it's in the high mountains.
time trial: The fight against the clock is his great weakness, but he has also been able to improve here.
Wind/pave: With his strong team, he really shouldn't make any mistakes.
- Prognosis:
Mikel Landa has the potential to win the Tour de France more than once. To do this, however, the Spaniard first has to assert himself against the competition within the team in 2018. If he starts in top form he can use his fresh legs and is a strong contender for the title.
Nairo Quintana: Will the Colombian find his old strength again?
There were years when only Nairo Quintana (Movistar) could hold Chris Froome's rear wheel. Those times seem to be over. Since his Vuelta victory in 2016, his performance has fallen sharply. First he was beaten by Tom Dumoulin in the Giro d'Italia in 2017, then he didn't stand a chance in the Tour de France. After all, he finally won a stage again this season at the Tour de Suisse. He had not been able to do this in the WorldTour for over a year. A sign that things are looking up again for him? We hope so, because Nairo Quintana has not only been one of the best climbers in the world, but also one of the most likeable riders in the peloton. He may have been encouraged by the news that Froome and Dumoulin are coming to the Tour with the Giro in their legs.
Team: Three captains could allow for many tactical variations - or cause internal team problems.
Experience: There will hardly be a lack of that. This is his fifth Tour de France as captain.
Form/Fitness: Even though he achieved respectable success at the Tour de Suisse, he has been chasing his top form for 1,5 years.
Consisty: Quintana has completed nine Grand Tours in his career. Only twice did he not finish in the top four.
Mountain: The Colombian has been the strongest on the mountain alongside Froome for many years. That potential is still in him.
time trial: In this discipline he will lose time to almost all his competitors.
Wind/pave: Quintana is not heavy and is therefore easily blown away by the wind. But his team must be strong enough to protect him.
- Prognosis:
Everything depends on whether Nairo Quintana has quietly gotten back to his old form. If he drives like he did in the past 1,5 years, he won't make it onto the podium. If he has prepared himself perfectly, he is undoubtedly one of the absolute Tour de France favorites. We tend to believe in something in between: podium possible, but not enough for overall victory.
Richie Porte: Finally three successful weeks?
Richie Porte (BMC) followed the same path that Mikel Landa has now taken two years earlier. The Australian turned his back on Team Sky and now wanted to become Chris Froome's big competitor himself. He has not succeeded to date, which is less due to his general skills. Richie Porte's big problem is the lack of consistency. In one-week tours, he is considered the strongest ranking rider in the peloton. However, if there are three weeks to go, he always catches at least one weak day. This is often due to concentration, which can also result in falls like in 2017. Having skipped the Giro d'Italia, he must be considered one of the Tour de France favorites for overall victory. Which day screwed up his plan this time?
Team: BMC has advantages in team time trials and on cobblestones. In the mountains you are inferior.
Experience: Richie Porte has worked his way up to captain. But he must finally implement the experience.
Form/Fitness: Richie Porte's form is almost always right. He recently won the Tour de Suisse.
Consisty: Seen over a season, the Australian is extremely consistent - unfortunately not over three weeks.
Mountain: Whether short and steep or long and rhythmic: Richie Porte is not afraid of any mountain. The mountain is calling and he drives up it - and fast.
time trial: In top form he can easily keep up with Chris Froome. Together with the team time trial, it will be difficult to take time from him.
Wind/pave: His team is very strong on this terrain. He will also benefit from this.
- Prognosis:
If not now then when? With Chris Froome and Tom Dumoulin, his two biggest competitors have the Giro d'Italia in their legs. He easily puts everyone else in his pocket in the time trial and team time trial. Actually, he just has to ride in the mountains and hope that Froome and Dumoulin run out of breath at some point. If Richie Porte finally holds out for three weeks, he is probably the safest bet of all Tour de France favorites in 2018.
Tom Dumoulin: Will the Dutchman get revenge for the Giro?
Maybe it was a mistake that Tom Dumoulin (Sunweb) decided to ride the Giro d'Italia earlier in the year. If he had given up the Tour of Italy and gone into the Tour de France rested, he would have been the top favorite for many experts. But now, like Chris Froome, he too has had three tough weeks in his legs. Unlike the Brit, however, the Dutchman is not used to such a heavy burden. For the first time he really competed in the overall classification in 2017. At that time he immediately won the Giro. Now he will complete two three-week national tours within three months. Brave decision, but was it the right one in the end?
Team: Sunweb can keep up in the team time trial and has advantages on the pavé. In the mountains, however, Dumoulin doesn't have a top team at his side.
Experience: Dumoulin has seen it all. However, he has never driven as a captain in the Tour de France.
Form/Fitness: It's hard to imagine that after the Giro d'Italia he'll be able to finish the Tour de France in top form.
Consisty: The Dutchman has not been considered a classification driver for long. But when he wanted to, he usually delivered.
Mountain: Steady climbs are very good for him. The shorter and steeper they are, the more problems he will have.
time trial: He's world champion. In normal form he will pass all opponents.
Wind/pave: Difficult to assess, but judging by his physique, he and his strong team will be more likely to be among the winners on stage #9.
- Prognosis:
History has taught us that the Giro/Tour double cannot be mastered even by the best riders. Best example: Alberto Contador. The 2018 Tour of France is simply too tough and varied for Tom Dumoulin to be able to fight for overall victory again after such an extreme Giro d'Italia. We therefore expect a slump rather than a place on the podium.
Romain Bardet: Is his chance in 2018 better than ever?
For over 30 years, the French have been waiting for one of their men to finally win the Grand Boucle. In 1985 Bernard Hinault won. Year after year, at the end of June, people in France talk about which compatriot could make it this time. Romain Bardet (AG2018R La Mondiale) is very popular in 2. No wonder, because the 27-year-old ended up on the podium at the last two events. Now it should finally work out with the overall victory - and the chances are better than ever. Romain Bardet only rode a few races this season to come to the Tour de France with freshness. He finished third at the Critérium du Dauphiné, which should be a good sign that the form is building up properly.
Team: Romain Bardet has a real precious helper in Pierre Latour. Overall, the team is clearly weaker than Sky or Movistar.
Experience: Romain Bardet is captaining his sixth Tour de France.
Form/Fitness: The Frenchman seems to have taken it easy and there are increasing signs that the form is building up.
Consisty: Bardet has consistently finished in the top 10 on the Tour for the past four years.
Mountain: When things go uphill, Bardet hardly has any weaknesses. He likes it long and rhythmic as well as short and poisonous.
time trial: Unfortunately he will lose a lot of time in the team time trial and in the individual time trial.
Wind/pave: As a Frenchman, he should have stopped by Roubaix before. It is difficult to assess whether the 9th stage will suit him.
- Prognosis:
What applies to Richie Porte also applies to Romain Bardet: if not now, then when? The Frenchman is undoubtedly one of the absolute Tour de France favourites, but he has to be extremely active in the mountains as he's outclassed in the battle against the clock. Its freshness could be the decisive factor at the end of the strenuous three weeks. A place on the podium is likely.
Conclusion: We have no idea who will win the 2018 Tour de France
It is not unusual for there to be clear favorites and even serial winners at three-week national tours. This year, however, it is extremely difficult to name a clear Tour de France favorite. Of course, a lot depends on whether Chris Froome is allowed to start or whether the ASO gets the ban on the Brit. But even if the four-time winner is there, he is not nearly as clear a favorite as in previous events. So we have an exciting Tour de France ahead of us, and we can only wildly speculate about the outcome. With the Giro d'Italia under their belts, Chris Froome and Tom Dumoulin are at a disadvantage. Even if they are strong time trialists, this can't really be enough to win the title. A burglary is therefore much more likely. Our tip goes to Richie Porte, who has the best conditions this year and finally has to prove that he can stay consistent for three weeks. Mikel Landa will come from behind in the time trial, as will Romain Bardet. The pavé stage and team time trial allows Porte to focus on defending right from the start. Due to the interesting stage constellations, we will see many attacks and an all-round exciting tour of France. Our tip:
- 1. Richie Porte (BMC)
2. Mikel Landa (Movistar)
3. Romain Bardet (AG2R La Mondiale)