Cycling: The Tour de France is known for its tough mountain stages, gripping time trials and thrilling bunch sprints. From time to time the organizations also build in a stage with cobblestones. But it hasn't been as intense as this year for a long time. The field of drivers will be shaken up over 20 kilometers tomorrow before the rest day. In our Tour de France preview we take a look at the first major highlight of the tour.
Falls & breakdowns: The great fear of the "mother of all classics"
Tomorrow, a mega-event awaits us at the Tour de France. This highlight stage, covering 156,5 kilometers, is almost entirely flat, running from the citadel of Arras to Roubaix. That might sound rather boring if you've never heard of the one-day classic Paris-Roubaix . This race is considered the "mother of all classics" and is known as the "Hell of the North." Of course, the professionals at the Tour de France don't have to complete the entire classic route, but the stage still features a substantial 21,7 kilometers across 15 cobbled sections. The first sector kicks off after 47,5 kilometers. Since the intermediate sprint in Wasnes-Au-Bac comes after only two cobbled sectors, it's likely still within reach for top sprinter Fernando Gaviria (Quick-Step Floors). That is, provided there isn't a crash before then. The risk of accidents and equipment damage is, of course, extremely high on the way to Roubaix. This makes a prediction in our Tour de France preview very difficult.
Tony Martin (Katusha-Alpecin):
“It's the toughest cobblestone stage of the Tour in a long time. I expect large time gaps between the team captains.”
Pure chaos: Just don't lose the Tour de France
The finish is expected between 16:00 and 16:30 PM. With 70,0 kilometers to go, the decisive phase begins with Sector 12 on the Pavé de Warlaing à Brillon. This section is 2.000 meters long and is followed by the 2.400-meter-long Sector 13. After that, it's non-stop action with no time to catch your breath. Since the peloton isn't made up solely of Classics specialists , chaos is expected. The lightweight climbers, in particular , will be buffeted by the cobblestones and will struggle to keep up with the leaders. Therefore, the saying "you can't win the Tour de France, but you can lose it" applies today more than ever. In 2014, Chris Froome lost all hope of overall victory after two crashes on a cobbled stage. Vincenzo Nibali secured this victory at the time, partly because he made the strongest impression on the cobblestones and was able to gain time on his opponents.
Athletic director Andrew Klier (EF Education):
"Teams with a classification rider and a potential stage winner have to consider how much the stage win is worth to them compared to the overall standings."
Athletic director Enrico Poitschke (Bora-hansgrohe):
"Should it happen that there is a driver with Peter who we consider dangerous and whom we do not want to help, it may also happen that Peter does not drive on"
Sagan & Van Avermaet vs. Quick-Step Floors
After the bonus sprint in Wannehain, the riders enter the penultimate cobbled sector 17 kilometers from the finish. The well-known Camphin-en-Pévèle section is 1.800 meters long and is followed by the 1.400-meter Willems à Hem sector. After that, it's only about seven kilometers to the finish. Those who have ridden Paris-Roubaix before have a clear advantage over everyone else. The winners of the last five editions are all present: Peter Sagan (Bora-hansgrohe) in 2018, Greg Van Avermaet (BMC) in 2017, Mathew Hayman (Mitchelton-Scott) in 2016, John Degenkolb (Trek-Segafredo) in 2015, and Niki Terpstra (Quick-Step Floors) in 2014. The Quick-Step Floors team will be the main force in the race. With Philippe Gilbert, Yves Lampaert, and Niki Terpstra, the Belgian team boasts three potential winners. While German fans are pinning their hopes on John Degenkolb, Peter Sagan and Greg Van Avermaet are generally considered the top favorites. It remains to be seen whether these riders will be given free rein or will have to work for their team leaders. Unfortunately, we cannot address this uncertainty in our Tour de France preview.
John Degenkolb (Trek Segafredo):
"This is a stage in which I'm obviously going to win."
greg van avermaet (BMC):
“It's spectacular to win here. I hope I can keep the yellow jersey until Sunday.”
Velomotion prognosis: Sagan pulls Majka with him and wins in Roubaix
In cycling, no race is won without the right team tactics, which will be especially true for tomorrow's stage. In our Tour de France preview, we're predicting world champion Peter Sagan. The Slovakian won Paris-Roubaix this year and impresses not only with his cobblestone skills but also with his bike handling. Therefore, he's the perfect pilot for Rafal Majka. The Pole can capitalize on Sagan's strength and gain time on his rivals. When it comes to the stage win, Bora-hansgrohe will give Peter Sagan free rein, as the green jersey is also a major goal for the German team. Vincenzo Nibali (Bahrain-Merida) will also impress. The Italian will likely be in a brilliant position after this stage and put himself back in contention for the overall victory. How Chris Froome (Sky), Romain Bardet (AG2R La Mondiale), and all the other climbers fare depends largely on their teammates and a good dose of luck.
***Peter Sagan
**Greg Van Avermaet, Niki Terpstra
* Philippe Gilbert, John Degenkolb, Oliver Naesen