Analysis of the 2024 ZIV market data: The annual presentation of the most important figures from the bicycle industry is a relief. After difficult years, economic recovery is on the cards; the industry has reduced excess inventory, and the era of discount wars is coming to an end. Here are the most important information from the Bicycle Industry Association.
The bicycle industry has endured turbulent times. The 2010s, with the steadily rising demand for e-bikes, led to a near-doubling of retail sales from just under €2,5 billion to just under €5 billion. This was even topped in the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021, with a significant jump to just under €2022 billion; this was followed by an absolute leap to just over €XNUMX billion in XNUMX.
This is no surprise given the constantly rising sales prices for bicycles and e-bikes: While the combined average price was a modest 2017 euros in 750, by 2023 it had risen by a good 1.000 Euro to just under 1.800 euros. Sales figures grew less rapidly than revenue and even declined in 2023 for the first time in many years.
The Bicycle Industry Association (ZIV), which represents around 2024 companies in the bicycle industry, has now presented new market data for 140 – and it paints a mixed picture. First, the good news: Market saturation is not expected for the time being; stable sales figures for bicycles, and especially e-bikes, are expected to continue. As was the case a year ago, the latter have a market share of around 53 percent, thus surpassing non-motorized bicycles.
Decline in sales with almost constant unit numbers
Overall, total sales of bicycles and e-bikes remained stable: 2024 million bikes were sold in 3,85, just 2,5% fewer than the previous year. The downward trend since the boom year of 2020, with around 5 million units sold, appears to have halted. However, the industry had to cope with a decline in sales of a good 10%, which is likely primarily due to the substantial discounts. This enabled retailers to reduce excess inventory: At the end of 2023, this still amounted to a good 1,5 million bikes and had almost halved to around 2024 units by the end of 830.000.
However, this came at the expense of bicycle manufacturers, who sold around 25% fewer bikes in Germany than in the previous year (2023: 4,36 million; 2024: 3,16 million). It's no wonder that various suppliers had to file for bankruptcy or simply disappeared from the market without a trace. The latter particularly affected newcomers who had sensed their opportunity in the boom year of 2020 and were then caught off guard by the downturn.
Analysis of ZIV market data: Significantly lower sales from manufacturers to retailers
Of course, the figures don't reveal how individual bicycle dealers fared in 2024 – ZIV experts estimate individual circumstances very differently. This depends, for example, on the strength of a company's workshop: For some bicycle dealers, this accounts for up to 20 percent of sales and up to a third of profit. In general, workshop services showed increases and were able to partially offset declining sales figures.
Discounts have led to falling unit prices in 2024
Thanks to the significant discounts, especially on e-bikes (from the customer's perspective), their average prices have fallen for the first time ever – from €2.950 to €2.650, to which VAT must be added. Non-motorized bicycles, on the other hand, have increased slightly and, at €500 (plus VAT), are back at the 2022 level (2023: €470). However, these figures can also fluctuate significantly: The businesses listed in the retail associations Bike&Co and VSF were significantly above the overall industry average, with an average of €3.531 for an e-bike and €1.367 for a bicycle (each plus VAT). The latter figure, in particular, is surprising and points to retailers who sell, for example, high-quality road bikes and gravel bikes. Retailers who are heavily involved in leasing also achieve higher prices; leased (e-)bikes are generally more expensive than purchased ones.
The model groups: E-MTBs still strong, gravel bikes on the rise
In terms of model groups, the trends of previous years continued in 2024. Among bicycles, trekking and city bikes continue to lead the market with a combined share of 58 percent. Non-motorized mountain bikes continue to decline, with their market share declining from 5 to 3 percent. Road bikes and gravel bikes, which together accounted for 2023 percent in 9, saw slight growth: The ZIV reports separate figures for 2024, namely 6,5 percent for gravel bikes and 5 percent for racing bikes. Sales figures for e-bikes remain almost unchanged: e-MTBs continue to lead with 40 percent (+1%), trekking bikes remain at 25 percent, and city bikes decline slightly to 19 percent (-2%).
To summarize: After difficult times, the bicycle industry can look to the future with confidence. Balanced inventory levels are expected before the end of this year; and as soon as a balance between supply and demand is established, the special prices should also be over. The coming weeks could therefore be a good time to purchase a bicycle or e-bike. However, those who already own the latter may have good reason to remain loyal to it for a while longer, as new figures from the ZIV show. Previous estimates of the useful life of electric bikes, which were four to five years, had to be revised. Based on the analysis of old batteries, the "full end-of-life" is now estimated to be closer to eight to nine years; e-bikes therefore last much longer than previously thought.
Analysis of ZIV market data: New findings: E-bikes last much longer than previously thought
And something else is reducing sales of new e-bikes in retail stores: leased returns, which are now being offered on online platforms as certified used bikes. Estimates suggest that about every second leased bike is returned. With a leasing rate for e-bikes of around 50 percent, we're talking about up to one million units; a significant portion of these are likely to be resold through a professionalized used market, the likes of which didn't even exist a few years ago.
The fact that all of this works shows that interest in e-bikes and bicycles remains unbroken – so, on the whole, the industry, which of course also benefits from the overall social climate, can look to the future with optimism.