Cycling: At the 2025 Tour de France, the sprinters can once again look forward to a chance at the yellow jersey. The stage winner in Lille will also be the first overall leader—but who will it be?
A day for the sprinters
At 184,9 kilometers, the first stage on the French-Belgian border marks the start of the most important Grand Tour of the year – and it promises to be a race dominated by the sprinters. While the opening kilometers are traditionally characterized by nerves, the route profile actually offers little cause for hecticness. The route through the Pas-de-Calais region is ideal for an early breakaway group that could decide the intermediate classifications. A real selection is unlikely – unless there are crashes, which we obviously don't want to see. The wind shouldn't play a decisive role in this region either, so the general classification riders will remain vigilant but hardly have to worry about losing time. Back in the Nord department, the sprint teams will do everything they can to force a bunch sprint in Lille. The finish straight below the citadel offers no significant difficulties – perfect conditions for the strongest sprint train to prevail with the fastest man.
Who will win the mountain jersey?
While the yellow and green jerseys will likely go to the stage winner, the battle for the polka dot jersey is wide open. Three category four climbs await the professionals. Whoever wins two of them will secure the polka dot jersey. Presumably, several explosive riders will venture into a breakaway, up the pace on the climbs, and sprint for the points. Among those capable of such an attack are Dane Magnus Cort (Uno-X Mobility), Colombian Sergio Higuita (XDS Astana), Belgian Thibau Nys (Lidl – Trek), and Frenchman Quentin Pacher (Groupama – FDJ).
Velomotion forecast: A Belgian duel at the border
The 2025 Tour de France will remain in France. Right from the start, however, the peloton will be closer to a foreign country than almost anywhere else in the race. On the French-Belgian border, the Belgian sprinters will be particularly motivated to capture the yellow jersey. We expect a duel for the stage win between Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin – Deceuninck) and Tim Merlier (Soudal – Quick-Step). But the Italian Jonathan Milan (Lidl – Trek) is also considered one of the favorites for the stage victory. All three have excellent lead-out trains. Philipsen, for example, can rely on none other than Mathieu van der Poel as his lead-out man – what a luxury! We give Jordi Meeus (RB – Bora – hansgrohe), another Belgian, an outside chance. Biniam Girmay (Intermarché – Wanty) must also be mentioned; after all, the Eritrean won three stages last year. German hopes rest on Phil Bauhaus (Bahrain – Victorious) and Pascal Ackermann (Israel – Premier Tech).
*** Jasper Philipsen
**Tim Merlier, Jonathan Milan
* Jordi Meeus, Biniam Girmay, Phil Bauhaus
5 days until the Grand Depart #tourdefrance2025 pic.twitter.com/jpOLgZTyWC
— Beefeater Bend (@tdfbeefeaters) June 30, 2025